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原文標(biāo)題：Get Ready for Another Real Estate Bubble

準(zhǔn)備好迎接下一場(chǎng)房地產(chǎn)泡沫

Real estate prices increased again in January, with several states reaching new historic highs, leading experts to wonder whether another real estate bubble might be brewing. 

在今年的1月份房地產(chǎn)的價(jià)格持續(xù)的增長(zhǎng)，在一些州和地區(qū)已經(jīng)創(chuàng)下了歷史最高紀(jì)錄，權(quán)威專(zhuān)家懷疑是否另一場(chǎng)房地產(chǎn)泡沫即將到來(lái)。

Nationwide, home prices rose by 5.7 percent in January compared to a year ago, according to data released Tuesday by CoreLogic. 

根據(jù)CoreLogic周二公布的數(shù)據(jù)，從全國(guó)范圍來(lái)看，房屋的價(jià)格在1月份同比上漲了5.7%。

CoreLogic also cited four states (Colorado, Texas, Wyoming and New York) where home prices have reached new historical record highs. Colorado was the state with the highest home price appreciation in January with a 9.1 percent increase, while Texas and Wyoming were shortly behind with 8.3 percent increases. New York homes rose by 5.6 percent.

CoreLogic同時(shí)也指出四個(gè)州（科羅拉多、得克薩斯州、懷俄明和紐約州）的房?jī)r(jià)已經(jīng)達(dá)到歷史上的最高。科羅拉多是這些州立房?jī)r(jià)漲幅最大的州，漲幅達(dá)到9.1%，得克薩斯州和懷俄明州緊隨其后也達(dá)到了8.3%的增長(zhǎng)。紐約州的房?jī)r(jià)也上漲了5.6%。

“In part, these trends reflect the strength of regional economies,” Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic, said in a press release. “Colorado and Texas have had stronger job creation and have seen 8 to 9 percent price gains over the past 12 months.” Core Logic wasn’t immediately available for comments.

“在某種程度上，這種趨勢(shì)反映了地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力，”CoreLogic的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢(xún)師弗蘭克在一份新聞稿中提到。“科羅拉多和得克薩斯有著較強(qiáng)的創(chuàng)造就業(yè)的能力，在過(guò)去的12個(gè)月里增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到8％－9%。”

A quick price gain doesn’t mean the market is overvalued, but strong demand for real estate and limited supply can certainly lead to a market being overvalued. And the more prices are overvalued, the greater the chance that a bubble might be forming.

房?jī)r(jià)的迅速增長(zhǎng)并不意味著整個(gè)市場(chǎng)是被高估的，但是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勁的需求和有限的供應(yīng)量會(huì)導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)的高估。隨著價(jià)格的進(jìn)一步被高估，更有可能形成更大的泡沫。

Trulia’s Bubble Watch data, which lists home prices relative to fundamentals for the nation as a whole and for 100 U.S. metro areas, can shed light on whether the U.S. and these states might be overvalued.

Trulia的觀察數(shù)據(jù)顯示 對(duì)比整個(gè)國(guó)家和100個(gè)都會(huì)區(qū)視為的整體，可以觀察出是否美國(guó)和這些州的房?jī)r(jià)被高估。

In the country, home prices were still 2 percent undervalued relative to fundamentals in the fourth quarter, Trulia wrote in January. In the first quarter of 2006, at the height of the last housing bubble, home prices soared to 34 percent overvalued. 

Trulia1月的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在過(guò)去的第四季度，美國(guó)鍋內(nèi)房屋價(jià)格仍然被相對(duì)低估2%左右。在2006年第一季度，也就是房地產(chǎn)泡沫的頂峰時(shí)期，房屋價(jià)格飆升了34%。

There’s not yet a bubble in the U.S., despite factors reminiscent of the last housing bubble, including low interest rates (still below 4 percent) and somewhat lax rules on down payments for first-time buyers. But looking at specific states can give a different picture and the Trulia data points to some markets being overvalued.

All Colorado and New York markets mentioned by Trulia were still undervalued in the fourth quarter, including New York City (5 percent undervalued) and Long Island (4 percent undervalued). Wyoming wasn’t even mentioned.

到目前為止美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)還沒(méi)有形成泡沫，但是低利率（低于4%）和首次購(gòu)房所需首付款要求的松懈等這些因素還會(huì)讓人不禁想起上一次的房地產(chǎn)泡沫。不同的州可以看到不同的景象，Trulia的數(shù)據(jù)指出一些地區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)是被高估的。在Trulia第四季度的數(shù)據(jù)中顯示科羅拉多州的全部城市和紐約州的大部分地方的市場(chǎng)仍然是被低估的，這其中包括紐約（房?jī)r(jià)被低估5%）和長(zhǎng)島（房?jī)r(jià)被低估4%）。懷俄明州并沒(méi)有被提及。

What about Texas?

Some of the largest price increases, including distressed sales, occurred in the Houston/The Woodlands/Sugar Land market (10.9 percent) and in the Dallas/Plano/Irving market (9.1 percent), according to CoreLogic. 

得克薩斯州如何呢？

通過(guò)CoreLogic的數(shù)據(jù)我們可以得知，一些地區(qū)房?jī)r(jià)及不良銷(xiāo)售都有大幅的增長(zhǎng)，在休斯頓、糖城和伍德蘭市德平均達(dá)到10.9%的增長(zhǎng)，在達(dá)拉斯、普萊諾以及歐文市也達(dá)到9.1%的漲幅。

Trulia’s Bubble Watch claims that all but one market (Fort Worth) was found to be overvalued. Home prices in Austin were overvalued by 16 percent, while those in Houston, San Antonio and Dallas were overvalued by 10 percent, 7 percent and 3 percent respectively. The oil business isn’t the only industry feeding that home price appreciation in the Lone Star state. Technology has also been a large contributor, especially in Austin.

Trulia 數(shù)據(jù)表明所有地區(qū)（除了沃思堡）的房?jī)r(jià)都被高估了。奧斯汀的房?jī)r(jià)被高估了大約16%，休斯頓、圣安東尼奧以及達(dá)拉斯也分別被高估了大概10%、7%和3%左右。 石油產(chǎn)業(yè)并不是推高孤星之州房?jī)r(jià)上漲的唯一原因，科技產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展在奧斯汀地區(qū)房?jī)r(jià)上漲也起到了很大的作用。

Whether the steep home price appreciation in some Texas markets will lead to a bubble will depend on whether the employment growth there is sustainable in the long term.

德州房產(chǎn)升值是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致地產(chǎn)泡沫將取決于當(dāng)?shù)卦陂L(zhǎng)期的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)是否有可持續(xù)性。

A continued drop in oil prices, or even a tech bubble burst, could easily curb demand for housing in hot Texas markets, and take some of the air out of the sky high prices.

油價(jià)的持續(xù)下跌以及科技泡沫的破滅都可能輕易的遏制住得克薩斯州火熱的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)，并且將房?jī)r(jià)從虛高的位置打回合理。